Wednesday, September 28, 2011

UFC Live 6 Main Card Breakdown/Predictions

Time for my UFC Live 6 Main Card Breakdown/Predictions.

Dominick Cruz vs Demetrious Johnson

The title fight between Dominick Cruz and Demetrious Johnson in my mind is a foregone conclusion. Cruz has 1 loss on his record to Urijah Faber, which he avenged in his last title defense. His unorthodox striking style makes him difficult to hit and frustrating for opponents. And his takedown defense is good and even if you get him down, good luck keeping him there. Faber couldn't keep the fight grounded no matter how hard he tried. Demetrious Johnson lives on his wrestling and submission game. If Faber couldn't hold down Cruz, I don't see how Johnson can. Johnson will also be giving up a height and reach advantage to Cruz. This all points to one thing for me, another successful title defense.

I think Cruz who isn't known for being a finisher will finally get a stoppage in this fight. The reach advantage and his takedown defense will lead Johnson to over-commit and get caught.

My prediction is Cruz by 3 round TKO.

Pat Barry vs Stefan Struve

If patterns hold, this is Pat Barry's fight to win. Barry is 3-3 in the UFC alternating wins and losses. Coming in off the spectacular comeback of the year candidate loss to Cheick Kongo, he's due for a win. Struve is a tall order (literally) for Barry however. Barry will be giving up a full 12 inches of height in this fight.

If Struve uses his head, he'll take this fight to the ground where Barry's ground game is suspect at best (he was choked out by Mirko Cro Cop). But Struve is young and Barry has been trash talking him into a standup fight. I believe that Struve falls for the trash talk and keeps the fight standing. Struve will try to use his height and reach but like in the past, he won't be able to as Barry gets inside on him.

My prediction is that Barry will score a 2nd round TKO.

Anthony Johnson vs Charlie Brenneman

Brenneman is coming off his upset victory over Rick Story. Brenneman is a welterweight version of Clay Guida. He has an endless gas tank and great wrestling. But he's fighting Anthony Johnson, another great wrestler who happens to have great knockout power. Brenneman is basically a one dimensional fighter who will go for constant takedowns in an effort to work his ground-and-pound. Johnson I believe will stuff the majority of these takedowns and pick Brenneman apart on the feet. I believe Johnson's size and power will be just too much for Brenneman.

My prediction is Johnson by 2nd round TKO.

Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig

The first fight on the main card could be interesting. This is a rematch in which Wiman won via technical submission because the referee jumped in and stopped the fight after Danzig got caught in a guillotine choke. Danzig never tapped out and was fighting to get out of the position when the ref stopped the fight.

The fight was over so quickly that there isn't a lot to work with from the first meeting. But if I recall correctly, Danzig was technically winning when he got caught. No matter what happened in the first fight, I expect Danzig to be aggressive. I expect him to push this fight to the ground and work for a submission. Danzig wants to avenge this loss.

My prediction is that Danzig does in fact avenge his loss via 3rd round armbar.

So this wraps up my UFC Live 6 Main Card breakdown/predictions. Looking forward to fight night.

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