Monday, September 19, 2011

UFC 135 Main Card Breakdown/Predictions

Today I'm going to give my UFC 135 Breakdown/Predictions. 

Jon "Bones" Jones vs Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

Let's start at the top. Bones versus Rampage for the light heavyweight title. In my opinion this fight is cut and dry. Bones will demolish Rampage for several reasons. 

First, is Rampage's one dimensional and predictable stand up. Since Rampage came to the UFC he's be strictly a counter puncher. How it has been working for him so long baffles me. So far only Forrest Griffin with brutal leg kicks and Rashad with classic lay-and-pray have figured him out. In every one of Rampage's recent fights he's lived off counter punching alone. No threat of take downs, no nasty clinch work. I think Jones will exploit this quickly.

Second, is obviously the fact that he is no longer looking for takedowns. Without that threat, Jones can stay on the outside and pick his shots. Nothing to worry about when your opponent is waiting on you to make a move. 

The last reason is Jones. Bones will utilize that amazing wing span to keep distance in the stand up game forcing Rampage to lunge in to close the gap. At that point Rampage is susceptible to the takedown. Once Rampage is on his back, Jones will demolish him with his notoriously nasty ground-and-pound. Do I need to remind you that he broke Brandon Vera's orbital bone with a nasty elbow. Or should I remind everyone that he put Vladmir Matyushenko in a crucifix and elbowed him until the ref couldn't stand to watch anymore.

My only hope in this fight is that Jones toys with Rampage for a couple of rounds before finishing him. I did pay good money to see this fight and I want my money's worth!

My prediction is Jon "Bones" Jones wins by verbal tapout in the 3rd round after he puts Rampage in the Bones demolition machine.

Matt Hughes vs Josh Koscheck

This is a tough fight for me. Mainly because I know that Matt Hughes is at the end of his career. I truly hope that Hughes will find a way to win. But I have the feeling that Koscheck will be too much for him. I don't think Hughes will be able to stop Koscheck's takedowns and I believe Koscheck will grind on him.

I would love to see Hughes take it to Koscheck. I hope he comes in aggressive and leaves it all in the cage. But Hughes is a notoriously slow starter. I think Koscheck will take advantage of that fact and push hard in the opening minute to get Hughes down. Now, I know that Hughes has been training with BJ Penn, but I don't think BJ can teach him how to submit a guy off his back in this short of time. So when Koscheck takes Hughes down, I hope he has been training his butt off to get up quickly.

The stand up category is interesting. If this fight somehow stays on the feet, I think Hughes' striking is adequate enough to hang in there as long as he shows some head movement and doesn't take a big shot. Hughes' chin is looking fragile after BJ crushed him into unconsciousness. 

Hughes is a legend and I hope he can finish his career with a win.

My prediction is for Koscheck to take Hughes down repeatedly in route to a 2nd round TKO via gound-and-pound.

Travis Browne vs Rob Broughton

In Travis Browne and Rob Broughton we have a matchup of heavyweights. Browne is undefeated in his MMA career posting an 11-0-1 record. Broughton is also an accomplished fighter posting a 15-5-1 record in his career. However, I believe Browne has fought the tougher competition in his career.

This matchup depends on 2 things. First, both men have power, but Browne has 9 of his 11 wins via knockout and will be sporting a 5 inch height advantage over Broughton. Again, both men are capable of the knockout. But if the fight stays on the feet the likelihood that Browne scores that knockout is greater.

The second, is if this fight hits the canvas. Broughton has a decent submission game for a heavyweight. If this fight goes to the ground, Broughton has his best chance of finishing this fight.

My prediction is that Travis Browne makes use of his height and knockout power in route to a quick night. Browne via 1st round KO.

Nate Diaz vs Takanori Gomi

This fight for me, is a fight for relevancy. Diaz is on a 2 fight losing streak as a welterweight and will be dropping back to 155 pounds for this fight. Gomi has lost 2 of his 3 UFC appearances. Whoever loses this fight could be looking at the exit door.

Stylistically this fight will be interesting. Gomi has dynamite in his hands and he proved that when he KO'd Tyson Griffin. Griffin had never been stopped in his career until that knockout. Diaz will most likely come out and chose to box with Gomi. It's just something the Diaz brother seem to do. They both have ridiculous jiu jitsu, but neither man truly pursues a takedown. I believe Gomi's striking is better and he will negate the reach disadvantage easily. Once Diaz starts feeling Gomi's power I think he'll start trying to get the fight on the ground. If the fight hits the ground, I believe the fight is over. In Gomi's 7 career losses, 5 of come via submission.

The other random fact is that Gomi has fought Nate's brother Nick. Nate will surely use his brother's knowledge of Gomi in the gameplan.

My prediction is Diaz finds away to get the fight grounded. Diaz by 2nd round arm triangle.

Ben Rothwell vs Mark Hunt

So the main card starts with a thud as 2 big heavyweights who are both looking to turn their respective careers around. To say that I'm not excited for this fight is an understatement. All I hope is they come to fight, and the fight ends fast.

Both men will be riding 1 fight win streaks into this fight. For Hunt, his first win in 5 years after losing 6 straight, 5 by submission. Rothwell, is now 1-1 in the UFC after outpointing Gilbert Yvel 15 months ago.

Now in my opinion, I expect both men to come to the center of the ring and begin unloading strikes at one another. Rothwell will use his better wrestling to take the fight to the ground. Rothwell has a submission game and will use it to great affect against the submission ignorant Hunt. The end will come quickly.

My prediction is Rothwell by kimura within the first 3 minutes of round 1.

No comments:

Post a Comment